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Today I will use graphs and tables to sketch certain features of the changing higher education landscape, and draw out the strategic implications for universities in the UK, before concluding with international education and international students. When we look from the nation outwards to the higher education world, we can see three main trends. The relentless expansion of educational participation across the globe. The spread of indigenous capacity in science and technology to many countries.

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And the emergence of more higher education systems with autonomous clout. First, the growth of participation. Tertiary participation is uneven by world region and country. We focus on the zones where it is low, the gaps-variously seen as populations to support and opportunities to exploit.

Let's focus instead on the uniform pattern of expansion. Once countries achieve a basic threshold of state-building, the demand for secondary and then tertiary education starts to rise and it goes on rising. Sooner or later governments must respond, and they go on responding. Families also supply their own investments. The balance between government funding and family funding varies across the world but the outcome is the same. From time to time the growth of participation slows but the long run trend is clear.

Remarkable though it may seem when we look at the numbers for Africa and South Asia, all post-school education systems are on track to eventually become High Participation Systems, systems enrolling more than half of the population. This level has already been achieved in much of Europe and East Asia, and parts of the Americas. While economic growth is one of the conditions for high participation, and economic factors shape the growth of graduate numbers in some specific fields, overall, student numbers are driven less by labour market demand than by social demand.

The driver is social aspirations. Increasingly, everywhere, families find that young people need tertiary education not only to secure a position in the top layer of professions and occupations but for full agency and citizenship. Second, the spread of autonomous research, and the deepening of national higher education capacity across the world, matching the quantity expansion.

Activity in science and technology is growing at a healthy rate. Research is expensive. It is a largely a cost, rarely generating direct returns in net terms, especially basic research. But to access the fruits of worldwide innovations in science and technology, national economies need their own capability in science, their own trained people and their own capacity to train researchers, partly in government labs but mostly in universities.

Universities train most of the researchers who work in industry.

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This is now changing. In there were 39 countries that published more than one thousand science papers a year. The threshold of one thousand is a proxy for local scientific capacity. A nation with papers has its own science universities. In there were 51 such nations-an increase of 12 nations in 14 years.

The Review of Higher Education

More will follow. Some governments, such as that of Saudi Arabia, are front-end loading investment to achieve 'world-class' science universities as quickly as possible. Nation-states see themselves as 'global competition states', in Cerny's phrase. Nations that lack an indigenous scientific capacity are forced into a position of continuing dependence. The result is a complex mosaic of science systems across the world, at varying stages of autonomous development, varying disciplinary strengths, varying cross-border partnerships, and varying distances from the leading universities in the Anglo-American and Western European countries.

Differences in research strength have important implications for international education, because research is the principal driver of brand value, the spread of research capacity brings more competitors and collaborators into the strategic game, and global flows of talent are drawn towards nations with science power, not just for research activity but for education and credentials. The pattern of teaching services is shaped by the research rankings. As more national systems move towards the level of High Participation Systems, and become science systems as well, international education is less about meeting unmet demand, and more about using mobility to secure comparative advantage.

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This pushes up the level of standards and the intensity of competition. Some science systems are focused on building educational and research capacity in STEM and are growing rapidly. Others have already established comprehensive research and educational systems at tertiary level and are growing more slowly in research quantity, or not growing at all. Some, but not all, mature science systems are closely focused on lifting the quality of science or the efficient targeting of research funds, and like all systems they want to foster more effective links between university science and industry.

In certain long-established national science systems there is little or no growth in journal papers, despite the worldwide expansion in scientific knowledge. For example between and journal output in the UK rose just 0. The rate of growth was 0. Journal paper output fell by 1.

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Northwestern Europe houses a number of high quality science university systems, including the Netherlands and Belgium, Denmark, Sweden and Finland, and Switzerland and Austria. On some output indicators Switzerland is stronger than the UK research sector. In the longer run the Excellence Initiative will lift performance in the leading German universities. These systems like UK are characterised by high rates of intra-European collaboration. They dominate the list of leading research countries in terms of citations per paper, one proxy measure for research quality.

The trajectory in the Post-Confucian countries of East Asia, countries where the political and educational culture has been shaped by Chinese civilization, is different. South Korea also stands out. Between and journal output in China grew by In Chemistry China produced 17 per cent of all world papers in compared to 16 per cent in the US.

The US had twice as many papers ranked in the top 1 per cent by citation rate but the gap in quality is closing. In computing China had 13 per cent of all journal papers but 17 per cent of the world's top 1 per cent papers.

In South Korea the annual growth in papers was 8. It was Taiwan 6. Science was also moving in India at 7. However, paper volume in India is one quarter the level of China, and less than that of Korea which has one-thirtieth the population of India. There are many problems in the leading research universities.

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India is held back by the lack of that element so prominent in East Asia-the centralizing, modernizing national state.